Karan Bhasin
University at Albany, SUNY

Karan Bhasin

I am a PhD candidate in Economics at the University at Albany, SUNY. My research lies at the intersection of applied econometrics, forecasting, and monetary economics, with particular attention to how selection, state dependence, and information frictions shape expectations and the effects of fiscal and monetary policy. Before graduate school, I held positions at think tanks, government agencies, and multilateral institutions. You can reach me at kbhasin@albany.edu.

Applied Econometrics Forecasting Fiscal & Monetary Policy
Email SSRN
Research
Papers
Publications
Identifying Episodes of Fiscal Austerity: An LLM-Based Approach
with Prakash Loungani · Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 188 (2026), 105351
DOI VoxEU
Macroeconomic Effects of Formal Adoption of Inflation Targeting
with Surjit S Bhalla and Prakash Loungani · Economic Inquiry, forthcoming
IMF WP (ungated) VoxEU The Hindu Business Line ThePrint
Working Papers
Selection, Monetary Space, and the Output Costs of Fiscal Consolidation
with Prakash Loungani · June 2026
Doubly Robust Local Projections with Continuous State Dependence
with Prakash Loungani · March 2026
Density Forecasts and the Evolution of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in India
with Kajal Lahiri and Prakash Loungani · November 2025
Hot Prices, Cold Comfort: How Inflation Surges Shape Household Expectations in India
with Abhiman Das and Kajal Lahiri · November 2025
Labor Markets in India: Measurement in Times of Structural Change
with Surjit S Bhalla and Tirthatanmoy Das · June 2024
Ideas for India The Hindu
Pandemic, Poverty, and Inequality: Evidence from India
with Surjit S Bhalla and Arvind Virmani · IMF Working Paper No. 2022/069 · April 2022
Hindustan Times Brookings Ideas for India
Teaching
Courses
University at Albany, SUNY — Undergraduate
Eco 350: Money & BankingSummer 2025
Eco 350: Money & BankingSpring 2025
Eco 111: Principles of Economics (Macro)Winter 2024
Eco 350: Money & BankingFall 2024
Eco 111: Principles of Economics (Macro)Summer 2024
Eco 111: Principles of Economics (Macro)Spring 2024
Johns Hopkins University (AAP) — Graduate
Eco 634: Economic GrowthSummer 2025
Eco 634: Economic GrowthFall 2024
Eco 615: Macroforecasting & Time SeriesFall 2024
Writing
Policy Commentaries & Articles
Has the developmental ladder become steeper?
with Prakash Loungani · Brookings Institution · April 2026
Designing fiscal consolidation to achieve fiscal sustainability and the sustainable development goals
with Prakash Loungani · VoxEU · March 2026
Inflation Targeting and Monetary Policy in India
with Surjit S Bhalla & Prakash Loungani · Economic & Political Weekly · January 2026
Four Facts on Inclusive Growth in India
with Surjit S Bhalla · Economic & Political Weekly · November 2025
The Economist
An assessment of the performance of inflation targeting
with Surjit S Bhalla & Prakash Loungani · VoxEU · May 2025
Female labour force participation: Measurement and data quality
with Surjit S Bhalla & Tirthatanmoy Das · Ideas for India · March 2025
Synthetic Control Method: Opportunity for policy evaluation
Ideas for India · November 2024
Poverty in India over the Last Decade
with Surjit S Bhalla · Economic & Political Weekly · July 2024
The EconomistIndia Today
Hitting Home: Housing Affordability in the U.S.
with Aziz Sunderji & Prakash Loungani · Econofact · March 2024
India eliminates extreme poverty
with Surjit S Bhalla · Brookings Institution · March 2024
India—China: Reversal of fortunes?
with Surjit S Bhalla · Brookings Institution · September 2023
House Prices Continue to Fall as Borrowing Costs Rise
with Hites Ahir & Prakash Loungani · IMF Blog · March 2023
Measuring poverty in the absence of Consumption Expenditure Survey data
with Surjit S Bhalla · Ideas for India · October 2022
Raising the standard: Time for a higher poverty line in India
with Surjit S Bhalla & Arvind Virmani · Brookings Institution · April 2022
Talks
Selected Presentations
Identifying Episodes of Fiscal Austerity: An LLM-Based Approach
with Prakash Loungani
AI and Macroeconomy Conference (LAEF, UC Santa Barbara & University at Albany) · 2026
David Kendrick Memorial Conference, Johns Hopkins University · 2026
North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society, Emory University · 2026
Macroeconomic Effects of Formal Adoption of Inflation Targeting
with Surjit S Bhalla & Prakash Loungani
Society of Government Economists Annual Conference · 2025 [slides]
Resilience of Global Housing Markets
with Prakash Loungani
International Housing Association Interim Meetings · September 2023 [slides]
How Well Do Forecasters Predict U.S. Housing Starts? A First Inspection
with Hites Ahir, Davide Furceri & Prakash Loungani
43rd International Symposium on Forecasting · 2023
24th Federal Forecasters Conference · September 2022 [slides]
Turning the Corner? Housing Markets Around the Globe
with Prakash Loungani
International Housing Association Global Meetings · February 2023 [slides]
Interest Rates and House Prices
with Prakash Loungani & Hites Ahir
International Housing Association Meetings · August 2022 [slides]
Data
Data & Program Files
Living-Standards Project
An exercise aimed at the collection and dissemination of important development data. In the first stage, data on poverty lines across Indian states along with different poverty estimates will be made available to researchers studying poverty, inequality, and growth in India. Data hosted at living-standards.org.
India's Household Employment Data
Access India's Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS) data in Stata format for various rounds:
January 2022 – December 2022 January 2021 – December 2021 July 2021 – June 2022 July 2020 – June 2021 July 2019 – September 2020 July 2018 – June 2019