Karan Bhasin
University at Albany, SUNY

Karan Bhasin

I am a PhD candidate in Economics at the University at Albany, SUNY. I study how beliefs respond to new information and why the effects of monetary and fiscal policy differ across economic conditions. I develop econometric and computational methods to address the selection and measurement problems that arise in answering these questions. I also use large language models to identify and measure policy interventions from historical documents. My research has been covered by The Wall Street Journal and The Economist. Before graduate school, I held positions at think tanks, government agencies, and multilateral institutions. You can reach me at kbhasin@albany.edu.

Applied Econometrics Empirical Macroeconomics Forecasting Monetary and Fiscal Policy
Research
Papers

Research statement — Coming soon.

Job Market Paper
Seemingly Sticky Forecasts, Flexible Beliefs
Publications and Accepted Papers
with Prakash Loungani · Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 188 (2026), 105351
Density Forecasts and the Evolution of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in India
with Kajal Lahiri and Prakash Loungani · International Journal of Forecasting · Conditionally accepted, September 2026
Temporal Variation in the Breakeven Point of PMI and Their Forecasting Implications
with Kajal Lahiri and Alexander Pechacek · Business Economics · Forthcoming
Winner, 2026 Edmund A. Mennis Contributed Paper Award.
Working Papers
Breakeven Points for Nowcasting: A Quantile Time-Varying Approach
with Tao Chen and Kajal Lahiri
The Output Costs of Fiscal Consolidation: Business Cycles and Low-Rate Policy Regimes
with Prakash Loungani and Alan Lujan
Multiplier Uncertainty and Narrative Fiscal Shocks
with Prakash Loungani and Alan Lujan
Work in Progress
Hot Prices, Cold Comfort: How Inflation Surges Shape Household Expectations in India
with Abhiman Das and Kajal Lahiri
Identification by Simulation Pretraining: Learned Identifying Statistics for Structural Economic Models
with Alan Lujan
Other Research
with Surjit S. Bhalla and Arvind Virmani · IMF Working Paper No. 2022/069, April 2022
How Well Do Forecasters Predict U.S. Housing Starts? A First Inspection
with Hites Ahir, Davide Furceri, and Prakash Loungani · Presented at the 43rd International Symposium on Forecasting (2023) and the 24th Federal Forecasters Conference (2022).
Teaching
Courses

Teaching statement — Coming soon.

Johns Hopkins University, Advanced Academic Programs
Econ 602: Macroeconomics Fall 2025, Spring 2026
Econ 615: Macroeconomic Forecasting Fall 2024
Econ 632: Topics in Macroeconomics Fall 2026
Econ 634: Economic Growth Fall 2024, Summer 2025, Fall 2025, Spring 2026, Summer 2026, Fall 2026

† Co-taught with Prakash Loungani.

University at Albany, SUNY
Eco 111: Principles of Economics II: Macroeconomics Spring 2024, Summer 2024, Winter 2025
UNI 118: Introduction to AI Spring 2026, Summer 2026
Eco 301: Intermediate Macroeconomics Fall 2026
Eco 350: Money and Banking Fall 2024, Spring 2025, Summer 2025, Winter 2026
Teaching recognition
Helen Horowitz Award for Teaching Excellence · 2025
CV
Curriculum Vitae

Coming soon.

Awards
Awards, Grants & Scholarships
2026
Edmund A. Mennis Contributed Paper Award
National Association for Business Economics · with Kajal Lahiri and Alexander Pechacek
Society of Computational Economics Travel Grant
Graduate Student Association Personal Development Grant
University at Albany
Department of Economics Travel Grant
University at Albany
2025
AI & Society Doctoral Dissertation Fellowship
Graduate Student Association Travel Grant
University at Albany
2024
Pong Lee Award for Best Third Year Paper
University at Albany
19th CIREQ Conference Travel Grant
University of Montreal
2023
NITI Aayog Research Grant
New Delhi · Research Scheme of NITI Aayog 2021 (RSNA 2021)
Benevolent Association Research Grant
University at Albany
2021–2023
Graduate Student Assistantship
University at Albany
Writing
Policy Commentaries & Articles
with Prakash Loungani · Brookings Institution · April 2026
with Surjit S. Bhalla and Prakash Loungani · Economic & Political Weekly, Vol. 61, Issue No. 3 · January 2026
with Surjit S Bhalla · Economic & Political Weekly · November 2025
with Surjit S. Bhalla and Prakash Loungani · VoxEU · May 25, 2025
with Surjit S Bhalla & Tirthatanmoy Das · Ideas for India · March 2025
with Surjit S Bhalla · Economic & Political Weekly · July 2024
with Prakash Loungani and Aziz Sunderji · EconoFact · March 14, 2024
with Surjit S Bhalla · Brookings Institution · March 2024
with Surjit S Bhalla · Brookings Institution · September 2023
with Hites Ahir and Prakash Loungani · International Monetary Fund · March 15, 2023
with Surjit S Bhalla · Ideas for India · October 2022
with Surjit S Bhalla & Arvind Virmani · Brookings Institution · April 2022
Talks
Selected Presentations
Identifying Episodes of Fiscal Austerity: An LLM-Based Approach
with Prakash Loungani
AI and Macroeconomy Conference (LAEF, UC Santa Barbara & University at Albany) · 2026
David Kendrick Memorial Conference, Johns Hopkins University · 2026
North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society, Emory University · 2026
Macroeconomic Effects of Formal Adoption of Inflation Targeting
with Surjit S Bhalla & Prakash Loungani
Society of Government Economists Annual Conference · 2025 [slides]
Selected Presentations, 2024
International Housing Association Meetings
CIREQ PhD Conference, Concordia University, Montreal
Resilience of Global Housing Markets
with Prakash Loungani
International Housing Association Interim Meetings · September 2023 [slides]
How Well Do Forecasters Predict U.S. Housing Starts? A First Inspection
with Hites Ahir, Davide Furceri & Prakash Loungani
43rd International Symposium on Forecasting · 2023
24th Federal Forecasters Conference · September 2022 [slides]
Turning the Corner? Housing Markets Around the Globe
with Prakash Loungani
International Housing Association Global Meetings · February 2023 [slides]
Interest Rates and House Prices
with Prakash Loungani & Hites Ahir
International Housing Association Meetings · August 2022 [slides]
Data
Data & Program Files
Living-Standards Project
An exercise aimed at the collection and dissemination of important development data. In the first stage, data on poverty lines across Indian states along with different poverty estimates will be made available to researchers studying poverty, inequality, and growth in India. Data hosted at living-standards.org.
India's Household Employment Data
Access India's Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS) data in Stata format for various rounds: