University at Albany, SUNY
Karan Bhasin
I am a PhD candidate in Economics at the University at Albany, SUNY. I study how beliefs respond to new information and why the effects of monetary and fiscal policy differ across economic conditions. I develop econometric and computational methods to address the selection and measurement problems that arise in answering these questions. I also use large language models to identify and measure policy interventions from historical documents. My research has been covered by The Wall Street Journal and The Economist. Before graduate school, I held positions at think tanks, government agencies, and multilateral institutions. You can reach me at kbhasin@albany.edu.
Applied Econometrics
Empirical Macroeconomics
Forecasting
Monetary and Fiscal Policy
Research
Papers
Job Market Paper
Seemingly Sticky Forecasts, Flexible Beliefs
Publications and Accepted Papers
Density Forecasts and the Evolution of Macroeconomic Uncertainty in India
Temporal Variation in the Breakeven Point of PMI and Their Forecasting Implications
Working Papers
Breakeven Points for Nowcasting: A Quantile Time-Varying Approach
The Output Costs of Fiscal Consolidation: Business Cycles and Low-Rate Policy Regimes
Multiplier Uncertainty and Narrative Fiscal Shocks
Work in Progress
Hot Prices, Cold Comfort: How Inflation Surges Shape Household Expectations in India
Identification by Simulation Pretraining: Learned Identifying Statistics for Structural Economic Models
Other Research
How Well Do Forecasters Predict U.S. Housing Starts? A First Inspection
Teaching
Courses
Johns Hopkins University, Advanced Academic Programs
Econ 602: Macroeconomics
Fall 2025†, Spring 2026†
Econ 615: Macroeconomic Forecasting
Fall 2024
Econ 632: Topics in Macroeconomics
Fall 2026†
Econ 634: Economic Growth
Fall 2024, Summer 2025†, Fall 2025†, Spring 2026†, Summer 2026, Fall 2026†
University at Albany, SUNY
Eco 111: Principles of Economics II: Macroeconomics
Spring 2024, Summer 2024, Winter 2025
UNI 118: Introduction to AI
Spring 2026, Summer 2026
Eco 301: Intermediate Macroeconomics
Fall 2026
Eco 350: Money and Banking
Fall 2024, Spring 2025, Summer 2025, Winter 2026
Teaching recognition
CV
Curriculum Vitae
Awards
Awards, Grants & Scholarships
2026
Edmund A. Mennis Contributed Paper Award
Society of Computational Economics Travel Grant
Graduate Student Association Personal Development Grant
Department of Economics Travel Grant
2025
AI & Society Doctoral Dissertation Fellowship
Graduate Student Association Travel Grant
2024
Pong Lee Award for Best Third Year Paper
19th CIREQ Conference Travel Grant
2023
NITI Aayog Research Grant
Benevolent Association Research Grant
2021–2023
Graduate Student Assistantship
Writing
Policy Commentaries & Articles
Talks
Selected Presentations
Identifying Episodes of Fiscal Austerity: An LLM-Based Approach
AI and Macroeconomy Conference (LAEF, UC Santa Barbara & University at Albany) · 2026
David Kendrick Memorial Conference, Johns Hopkins University · 2026
North American Summer Meeting of the Econometric Society, Emory University · 2026
Macroeconomic Effects of Formal Adoption of Inflation Targeting
Society of Government Economists Annual Conference · 2025 [slides]
Selected Presentations, 2024
International Housing Association Meetings
CIREQ PhD Conference, Concordia University, Montreal
Resilience of Global Housing Markets
International Housing Association Interim Meetings · September 2023 [slides]
How Well Do Forecasters Predict U.S. Housing Starts? A First Inspection
43rd International Symposium on Forecasting · 2023
24th Federal Forecasters Conference · September 2022 [slides]
Turning the Corner? Housing Markets Around the Globe
International Housing Association Global Meetings · February 2023 [slides]
Interest Rates and House Prices
International Housing Association Meetings · August 2022 [slides]
Data
Data & Program Files
Living-Standards Project
An exercise aimed at the collection and dissemination of important development data. In the first stage, data on poverty lines across Indian states along with different poverty estimates will be made available to researchers studying poverty, inequality, and growth in India. Data hosted at living-standards.org.
India's Household Employment Data
Access India's Periodic Labor Force Survey (PLFS) data in Stata format for various rounds: